On the Phone: Igor

I talked with Igor on the phone yesterday. He said that the whole experience of living in Kiev during this orange revolution has been like nothing in his life he's ever experienced before. His relationships with many people have changed. People that he was only acquaintances with before the election are now friends, since they share the bond of demonstrating for Yushchenko. People who he never talked to before are now good acquaintances for the same reason. And people whom he thought were or could be friends are no longer, because they said they support Yushchenko but refused to participate in the demonstrations. His father (also Yelena's father) did not support the demonstrations. Their relationship has always been difficult - now it is nearly impossible. His father said that it is not worth it to go to the square, it accomplishes nothing, and getting killed for accomplishing nothing is meaningless. It seems to me that instead, meaninglessness comes from persons who adopt such attitudes toward hopeful change. To such people, a certain dread is better than an uncertain hope. Unfortunately, it seems that this continues to be the attitude of Putin and the Russians, despite the progress Ukraine is making towards a better future. Igor also asked me what other people think of what is going on in Ukraine. Not the news media, but just other people I know. I had to say that, except for Hamlet, it hadn't come up with any of the people I know. It doesn't become water cooler conversation at work, haven't heard any of my co-workers mention it. I didn't hear my parents mention it until Saturday, when my mother brought it up after seeing the Yushchenko 'before & after dioxin' pictures CNN has been broadcasting. It turns out Mom & Dad have been following it pretty closely, though they're not that inclined to detail. But at least they are following it. Yelena's co-workers, especially the mechanics, have been following it closer than anyone else, otherwise. Igor wants everyone to know how important it is to them that they have our support and that this struggle is not over - the oligarchs and communists in parliament will continue to try to maintain their hold on power. He told me about 25% of the parliament are basically paid by the oligarchs to represent them, regardless of what region they are from! He also says most of the people have left the central square in Kiev, though about 1500 are still there. Everyone has gone home to prepare for the election, but they are ready to come back and re-start the protests at the first sign of fraud or provocations. Their organization is remarkable. Yushchenko's people say he could win with 60% of the vote on Dec. 26th, and it doesn't seem that far-fetched since it looks like Yanukovych has been abandoned by Kuchma. This kind of victory would be wonderful, but we shouldn't count on it. We need to keep a close eye on Kuchma and make sure he's doesn't try any more stunts. The election needs as many observers as possible, without having a 1:1 ratio of observers to voters. After what seems like certain victory, the future will continue to be difficult for Yushchenko and his bloc (combination of political parties - there are many parties in Ukraine). The compromise they have made with Kuchma include reforms that give more power to parliament, making Ukraine a parliamentary instead of a presidential republic. Offhand this seems like a good thing, except that the reason Kuchma is proposing the changes is to make sure Yushchenko gets a pyrrhic victory. It also looks like Ukraine may be headed towards a more federalist system of government than it currently has. This would be a way of keeping the two eastern regions that are thinking of seceding within the country. Apparently Yushchenko is serious about preventing secession - he has promised to charge separates with treason, punishable by a maximum 10-year jail term. This will be a difficult balancing act. After Yushchenko becomes president, he will have until September before the new reforms become law. So he will have some time to get as much done as he can before parliament intervenes. He is an economist, so I also suspect Ukraine is headed for economic reform. No doubt this will be painful, but the country should be better off afterwards, hopefully in a position to move towards EU membership. That's most of what I've been percolating for the past week. We should continue to pray for the people of Ukraine as they make their way forward.